The Silicon Valley luxury market remained resilient in 2023 despite rising interest rates, a banking crisis, and financial and geopolitical uncertainty. The rate of home appreciation continued to slow but the extremely low supply of new listings maintained a buffer on price declines. The number of $10 million and above sales surpassed 2022 and came close to the record high of 2021. After its end-of-year rally, the NASDAQ index was up 45% in 2023. This should give confidence in 2024 to the tech industry, which is the biggest driver of our local real estate market. Historically, we have had a high demand, low inventory market and we expect this trend to continue as Silicon Valley and the Peninsula remain among the most sought after places to live in the Bay Area.
How to Price Your Home in 2024
Across the Bay Area, overpricing leads to much lower sales-price-to-original-list-price percentages and much longer days on market (of course), but also an approximate 5% - 9% drop in the average dollar per square foot value. (Which doesn't include expired/withdrawn listings that don't sell at all.) These numbers are generalities: details will vary between listings - price segment, how much they're overpriced, how soon and how much they reduce their prices.
Dangers of Over Pricing 2020
We hope this letter finds you well and that you are coping with the new environment that we live in today. We are now 5-and-a-half months into Shelter-in-Place and selling real estate with strict new protocols in place to preserve the health and safety of our clients and colleagues. When Covid19 first hit and the quarantine guidelines went into effect in March 2020, we could not predict what was going to happen to our local real estate market. However, in April our real estate market came back to life and has continued to do so through the summer.
Buyers who are committed to staying in the area are looking for homes with offices and larger outdoor space as they grapple with working from home while housing both young and older college-aged children. Mortgage rates continue to be very attractive, which is helping these “move up” buyers stretch into larger homes.
While we are pleased with the level of buyer activity, there has also been a migration out of the area to other states that offer a more balanced lifestyle and a lower cost of living. Sellers need to adjust to the effects of this new environment and recognize that while prices are still healthy they are no longer on a continued uptick as we were used to historically.
Lastly, we have seen our marketplace bifurcate into two categories: a) Properties priced under $5 million are selling consistently within 2 to 3 weeks and are receiving 1 to 2 offers. b) Properties above the $5 million mark are taking longer to sell and sometimes need to initiate a price adjustment in order to find that clearing price.
Overall, we feel very fortunate that we live in an area where the “Covid effect” has not hurt our market to the degree that it has across the country. However, there are still many unanswered questions for the next year as we face the near-term election, additional reports of job losses, and the unknown impact of the immense vacancies in the local commercial real estate market.
If we can be helpful with market information, a property valuation, or recommendations for local vendors, please contact us at any time. Be safe and well!
A Message from LeMieux Associates
Dear Clients and Friends,
We hope this finds you healthy and well during this unprecedented time. None of us could have predicted just weeks ago that our world would be in such a state of unknown. As we navigate this new environment, we try to seek out ways to find solace in the simpler state of each day as we honor the Shelter-in-Place (SIP) mandate. It is important to take care of our minds and physical wellbeing and we send you our best during this time. We are here to answer your questions, discuss the market and provide advice in any way we can. We continue to practice a positive mental attitude and believe that one day – hopefully soon – our lives will resemble something that feels like normal again.
Real Estate Recap & Forecast
As we move into 2020, the stock market continues with strength which is correlated to the robust home prices. However, 2020 is an election year which may cause some uncertainty for the Fall market. We anticipate a higher volume of listings this Spring as sellers seek to capture value on their properties. In 2019, the days on market (DOM) remained flat or increased depending on the city and neighborhood. There is more balance between supply and demand and thoughtful pricing is important to a successful sale. With median sales price remaining flat in 2019, we saw the first year since 2012 in which sales prices did not rise (see chart below). UC Berkeley economist, Ken Rosen, predicts Bay Area median prices to remain flat with a potential range of +/-2%.
2019 Winter Real Estate Update
The Holiday season is upon us and we would like to express our gratitude for your continued support of our real estate business. Without you we couldn’t continue doing what we love which is helping people buy, sell and invest in real estate.
As we reflect on the 2019 real estate market, we have seen a change in the market dynamic and although sale prices are no longer appreciating at the same rate of recent years, they remain at historical record levels.
As the market becomes more balanced, inventory has increased and the days on market are slightly higher. Despite this, we still have a strong local market with more demand than supply which helps support sale prices. Additionally, mortgage interest rates remain favorable under 4% and the stock market has shown strong gains in 2019. Whether a client, family or friend, please contact us if you need anything – such as a vendor recommendation to help with home improvements or have questions about your property value - we are here to help with all matters real estate related.
What is the Compass Concierge Service?
Maximize the value of your home.
Compass Concierge is the hassle-free way to sell your home faster and for a higher price. From painting to flooring and everything in between, Concierge transforms your home with zero upfront costs and no interest - ever.
Exclusive to Compass, our Concierge program is among a suite of services designed to prepare your home for the market. Whether it’s roofing repairs, moving and storage costs, or additional needs, we will work with you to assess every opportunity to elevate your home’s value and improve your selling experience.
With Concierge, you don't have to pay the initial out-of-pocket costs for home improvement services. When your home sells, simply pay back the funds that the program provided and nothing more. Funds will be advanced to you for the home improvement services with no interest cost. When your home sells, you’ll pay the costs of services rendered and nothing more. By helping you invest in your home's potential, we aim to provide a faster and more profitable sale.
September 2019 Real Estate Update
September 2019 Report
After the heat of the spring market, activity typically slows down markedly in July and August. In September, listings start pouring on the market again to fuel the relatively short autumn selling season - in fact, September is sometimes the single month with the highest number of new listings. What occurs in the next 2+ months, before the mid-winter holiday doldrums begin, will be the next major indicator of market conditions and direction.
People Moving In & Out of San Mateo County
Median House Sales Price Trends
Bay Area Luxury Home Sales
Bay Area housing market shifting in anticipation of IPO demand
Executive Summary:
IPO expectations are already showing up in home sales activity, particularly in San Francisco and San Mateo
Sales of homes in San Francisco, San Mateo and Alameda have solidly exceeded last year – up 7 percent, 4 percent and 2 percent respectively year-over-year in April
Santa Clara, Wine Country and Contra Costa remain slower compared to last year
Homes priced between $1 million and $2 million continue to struggle, except in San Francisco and San Mateo, likely a result of tax reform changes and reduced state and local tax (SALT) and mortgage interest deductions
Nevertheless, sales of homes priced above $3 million have surged again, posting a 5 percent year-over-year increase, matching last year’s peaks
While growth in inventory of homes for sales is broad based, availability of homes priced above $3 million accelerated again to a 26 percent annual growth in April
While price growth remains flat in most regions, San Francisco median prices up 2 percent year-over-year in April
A 9 percent annual increase in homes under contract suggests buyers are back in droves, especially for homes priced over $3 million, up 44 percent year-over-year
April U.S. Jobs Report: Are we in a Goldilocks Economy?
A Goldilocks Economy is an economy that is neither too hot or cold, in other words, it sustains moderate economic growth and has low inflation, which allows a market-friendly monetary policy.
· Today’s national employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics once again outpaced expectations by posting a 263,000 increase in jobs added in April. The strong gain adds to the upward revisions of the two previous months, bringing the year-to-date monthly average to 205,000 jobs added, only slightly below the 223,000-monthly average in 2018.
Silicon Valley Market Overview
From Compass Chief Economist Selma Hepp – April 12, 2019
Silicon Valley continued to see relatively muted housing market activity in the first quarter, especially when compared to last year’s uncharacteristically dynamic conditions. Nevertheless, while total number of homes sold declined, winter’s build-up in affordably priced inventories in Santa Clara County helped push sales of those homes above last year’s levels. Largest decline in home sales activity was among homes priced above $3 million.
At the same time, while Silicon Valley continued with inventory decreases, the remainder of Santa Clara County experienced relatively larger increases in the number of homes for sale compared to other Bay Area regions, and the increases were widespread across price ranges.
Real Estate Roundup: San Francisco Is One of America’s Best Cities for Telecommuters
SAN FRANCISCO NAMED ONE OF THE NATION’S TOP CITIES FOR WORKING FROM HOME
San Francisco is not only an excellent city for finding a job, it’s also one of the best in the country for workers who want the flexibility of telecommuting.
That’s according to a new study by SmartAsset, which ranks the top 25 American cities for telecommuters on a 100-point scale. The company’s gauges a city’s telecommute-friendliness based on the percentage of employees working from home and its change over the past five years, unemployment and poverty rates, housing costs, and number of coffee shops and bars.
U.S., Golden State Home Price Growth Is Expected to Slow in 2019
U.S. home prices are expected to increase by 4.8 percent year over year by November 2019.
November home prices were up on an annual basis in the San Francisco and Los Angeles metropolitan areas by a respective 5.9 percent and 5.3 percent.
Prices appreciation for new homes is projected to slow in 2019 in all four major Bay Area housing markets, while new-home prices in Los Angeles are forecast to begin depreciating.
Bay Area Housing Inventory Again Posted a Solid Increase in November
The rebalancing of Bay Area housing markets that started several months ago continued in November, with buyers taking a notable pause. However, with extra inventory on the market — especially in the more affordable price range — cooling competition, and more price reductions, buyers are seeing more opportunities heading into 2019.
Overall Bay Area home sales declined by 17 percent in November, with all counties and price ranges posting drops from the same time last year. Table 1 summarizes November year-over-year changes in home sales by price range and county. While sales were generally down, a few bright spots remain in Alameda County’s $1-million-to-$2-million range and in both East Bay counties for sales over $3 million. There were about 940 fewer Bay Area home sales compared with last November, with more than 70 percent of the decrease for homes priced below $1 million.
Real Estate Roundup: California Again Leads the Nation for Home-Equity Gains
Here’s a look at recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious.
GOLDEN STATE HOMEOWNERS GAIN THREE TIMES MORE EQUITY THAN THE U.S. AVERAGE
Although U.S. homeowners saw their home-equity gains moderate in the third quarter due to cooling price growth, California remains at the top of the heap, with owners pulling in about three times the national average.
A new CoreLogic report says that the average American homeowner gained $12,400 in equity year over year in the third quarter, down by $3,600 from the second quarter. Golden State owners enjoyed the largest annual equity increase in the U.S., making an average of nearly $37,000 from the third quarter of 2017.
Shopping for a California Home? Here’s How Long It Might Take.
Golden State residents who aspire to homeownership should expect to search for at least two months, while house hunters in the Bay Area will likely be looking for even longer.
The average California homebuyer spends an average of eight weeks to find a suitable home according to a report released last week by the state Association of Realtors, with almost one-third shopping for more than three months. Though Golden State inventory improved for the seventh consecutive month in October, supply remains tight, and serious buyers are waiting out the market to amass a down payment, with most using their personal savings to fund the biggest purchase of their lives.
Silicon Valley Projected to Post the Nation’s Largest Inventory Gain in 2019
· Nationwide, the number of homes for sale is forecast to increase by less than 7 percent by the end of next year, while the San Jose metropolitan should see a double-digit-percent gain.
· Home price appreciation in all major California metro areas is projected to outstrip the national average of 2.2 percent.
· Mortgage rate increases will drive up the average monthly payment by 8 percent in 2019.
California Boasts 80 Percent of the Nation’s Most Expensive ZIP Codes in 2018
· San Mateo County’s Atherton ranks as America’s priciest ZIP code this year, with a median sales price of $6,700,000.
· Santa Monica, Palo Alto, Los Altos, and Portola Valley rank among the nation’s 10 most expensive real estate markets.
· San Francisco ties New York for the highest concentration of high-end U.S. housing markets on a city level, while Los Angeles has the most on a county level.
Pacific Union Joins Compass
Pacific Union is pleased to share the news that our firm has joined Compass, a real estate technology company that operates in more than 30 regions throughout the U.S.
REAL Trends currently ranks Pacific Union as the No. 5 residential real estate brokerage in Americaand the No. 1 independent brokerage in California based on 2017 sales volume of $14.1 billion. With the addition of Pacific Union, Compass’ national team will grow to over 6,400 real estate professionals representing $28 billion in sales volume in 2017.
Pacific Union was founded in 1975 and acquired by CEO Mark A. McLaughlin in 2009. The San Francisco-based brokerage has more than 50 offices and nearly 1,700 real estate professionals throughout California. Pacific Union’s deep commitment to professionalism and client service make it an ideal strategic and cultural fit for Compass.
Real Estate Roundup: Silicon Valley Claims America’s Two Most Expensive Housing Markets
Here’s a look at recent news of interest to homebuyers, home sellers, and the home-curious.
ATHERTON AND LOS ALTOS TOP LIST OF THE NATION’S PRICIEST COMMUNITIES
Yet another report highlights Silicon Valley‘s massive wealth, with two of the region’s housing markets ranking as the most expensive in the country.
That’s according to a video produced by realtor.com, which call out the country’s five highest-dollar housing market based on median list price, with Atherton at the top of the list. The San Mateo County town’s median list price over the past year was $10,194,000, the highest in the nation. The video notes that buyers in Atherton are often in search of large properties, with many homes in the community larger than 8,000 square feet.
Los Altos ranks No. 2 in America, with a median list price of $6,326,000. While homes in Los Altos may not be as sizable as those in Atherton, realtor.com assures viewers that residents of the Santa Clara County city have plenty of money at their disposal.